Navigant releases new market analysis of worldwide solar markets
The report includes a detailed analysis of the market for PV technologies and products by selling channels, application segments, module size and regional markets, also analyzing the competition among, and markets for, CSP and CPV. Global coverage includes analysis of developed and industrialized countries in the following regions: North America, Latin America, Asia Pacific, Europe, Africa and the Middle East. Regional market coverage includes relevant incentive programs and a breakdown into five major application categories: grid‐connected, remote habitation, remote industrial, consumer power, consumer indoor.
Navigant reports that while 2010 was a booming year for the solar industry, over‐buying of PV module products at the end of the year led directly to a challenging first half of 2011, while high levels of inventory on the demand side and changes in incentives will have an effect on the market in 2012:
- In the US, the 2012 election will likely lead to political‐gridlock. There is also an anti‐subsidy trend towards subsidies and incentives for renewables. The likelihood of an extension of the grant‐in‐lieu of ITC is less strong than in 2010.
- In Europe, debt problems are extending beyond Greece and affecting the market in Italy. Changes in most Feed‐in‐Tariffs (FiTs) have insinuated instability and lowered demand into this strong regional market and with the German FiT likely to decrease significantly, again, at the beginning of 2012, the climate for continued strong demand is uncertain in the region
- The assumption that just because capacity is high it will be installed is dangerous and overlooks the willingness of entities in China to hold inventory
- Ontario program: with an upcoming election and incentive program currently under review, this program is likely to become far less inviting or disappear entirely
- Pricing: With current high capacity levels, lowering incentive levels and aggressive pricing, average prices for modules will stay low; however, for residential and small commercial system buyers, these price savings may not be passed on
“The market for solar products has always been volatile; this is just a fact of life in the global solar industry. Decision makers need to be prepared for instant changes in incentive programs,” said Paula Mints, a director with Navigant and Principal Analyst for its Solar Services Program. “They should also gear‐up for new markets, such as Latin America and India, which may not be strong right now, but are likely to develop with commitment and patience.”
In addition to more than 150 detailed charts and graphs, the 350+ page report includes detailed sections including regional analysis of demand for 2010 through 2015, application analysis and forecast to 2015, along with the economic indicators, and incentives that affect the PV market.
For more information about ‘Analysis of Worldwide Solar Markets and Five‐Year Application Forecast 2010/2011’ visit www.navigant.com/solarreport.